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Fall arrives but may be warmer than average

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CANTON - Welcome, hot cider and sweater season. Fall is here.

Temperatures may have been dropping in the last few weeks, but do not expect the fall-like weather to last, said James A. Mitchell, a Buffalo-area National Weather Service meteorologist.

“Right now, it looks like in the short term, we’re going to have a cool spell,” he said.

After a week and a half, he expects the rest of the season to have above-average temperatures as the jet stream channels the cold Canadian air south. Even so, he said the north country can see snow as soon as October.

“We can see snow anytime, especially up there,” he said. “All it takes is one good punch.”

Additionally, he said, the summer drought may negatively affect fall foliage in the region’s drier parts.

“Overall, the state as a whole was dry,” he said. “It makes the trees want to shut down early. The color is usually not as vibrant and the leaves tend to want to fall off the trees before the color peaks.”

Lowville was hit the hardest by the dry season, totaling 10.16 inches of rain throughout the summer. The average rainfall is 13.39 inches. July’s 1.32 inches was severely below the month’s average of 3.26 inches.

Massena received an average of an inch below average per month this summer, according to John M. Goff, a Burlington NWS meteorologist.

“It was a little on the dry side, but nothing significant,” he said.

Watertown received more than average rainfall for every summer month except July, when it totaled 2.98 inches compared to an average of 3.08 inches.

Mr. Mitchell said the weekend could bring additional rain.

“That area will see some lake-effect rain,” he said. “It could be significant in some areas.”

Temperatures in Jefferson, Lewis and St. Lawrence counties have been slightly above average.

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